42 of the 56 league stage matches of IPL 2021 have now been completed. The double-header on Tuesday has helped create gaps between the four teams that were log-jammed in the middle of the table on eight points, with KKR and MI easing ahead and Punjab failling behind.
Shankar Reghuraman of TOI has done the calculations to show the probabilities of each team qualifying after Tuesday’s games, assuming that in any given match the chances of winning or losing are 50-50.
The analysis also ignores net run rate, since, with three to four games left for each team, current NRRs could change significantly.
- CSK remains assured of finishing among the top three or options and their chances of ending up one of the top two slots is as high as 97%.
- DC stays next best placed and like CSK knows they will be among the top three on points. Their chances of making the top two has slipped a little after the loss to KKR, but remains an impressive 92%
- RCB has a 96% chance of occupying one of the top four slots on points and a nearly one in three chance of grabbing one of the top two.
- KKR’s win on Tuesday has helped them consolidate the fourth spot currently, and its chances of eventually being among one of the top four teams on points rose to 55%. It cannot top and has a barely 1.3% chance of getting to the No.2 spot.
- MI stands fifth at the moment and like KKR has a 55% chance of finishing in one of the top four on points. Like KKR, it cannot top, but it has a slightly higher 25 chance of getting to the top two.
- PBKS’s loss to MI means that its chances of getting to one of the top four spots on points have dropped dramatically to just 18% and it can no longer aspire to reach the top two.
- RR is level with PBKS on points, but with a game in hand its chances are brighter. It has a 38% chance of making it to one of the top four slots on points and a 1.3% chance of getting to the top two.
- SRH’s chances of reaching the top four remain slim but a bit better at 2%. Amazingly, there 14 different scenarios in which it can even finish tied third. But given that there are over 16,000 possible scenarios, that’s less than a 0.01% chance.
- While CSK, DC and RBC are the only teams that can top the table, there are as many as 512 combinations of match outcomes which can result in a three-way tie between them at the top.